A season prediction

By: Adam Loghides

Posted: 7/30/08

We have all done it. We play the "schedule game" with both our favorite NCAA school as well as NFL team. We go down the schedule chronologically as we say, "win, loss, win, win, win, loss" and eventually we come up with a final record our team will achieve.

A lot of prognosticators have picked OSU to finish around sixth in the Pac-10 - some have said the Beavers won't even go bowling this year. Others say they can finish as high as third and will be partying in El Paso at the Sun Bowl in late December.

Well, it's time to play the Oregon State Beaver schedule game. I will be the first, but certainly not the last, contestant. And away we go.

The first week, the Beavers take on the Stanford Cardinal. Players from Stanford have come out and stated how much this team has improved over the last year. Except that it's not very hard to improve on a 4-8 season - even with returning starters. This one will be a Thursday night game, televised on ESPN (an OSU special this year) and could be used as a coming-out party for the Cardinal and a way for them to make a big splash on a national scene as they did in 2007 with their win against USC. Last season, the Cardinal stepped into Reser at Homecoming and flopped. We all know that the Beavers have proved to be a slow-starting team in recent years. However, Moevao will help to lead the Beavers to an ESPN win, something we haven't seen much of lately. Win.

Record: 1-0.

The following week, the Beavers fly to Penn State. Along with many other Beaver fans, my jaw dropped when I saw this game on the schedule. Penn State has been in the news more for off-the-field antics than anything over the last two years, and coach Joe Paterno has vowed to turn things around, but the locals are thinking of changing the name of their hometown to Grumpy Valley if the Nittany Lions don't get back into the national picture soon. They are coming off a 9-4 season, but only 4-4 in the weak Big Ten. But recent history says that OSU goes on the road, on ESPN, in September, against a more nationally-recognized team, and loses. The dream of an undefeated season ends in Grumpy Valley this year. Loss.

Record: 1-1.

Next up, Hawaii. If this were last season, it would be an amazing matchup. OSU, until Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, was the last team to beat the Rainbows. Not only will Hawaii not go undefeated in the regular season this year, it will probably be 1-1 when it arrives in Corvallis after getting thumped in the swamp by the Gators two weeks prior. Hawaii lost all four of its leading receivers from last year and, oh yeah, the record breaker, Colt Brennan. The Beavers' home opener will most likely be the second of many beatdowns for Hawaii in 2008. The pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow is gone and the Beavers will be happy to take advantage. Win.

Record: 2-1.

After a week off, OSU hosts USC on the Thursday night before classes start. USC will bring its performance to Corvallis for another nationally televised showdown on ESPN. Being in the top five of every pre-season poll, this team, according to some, is the class of both the Pac-10 and the country. And those some are right. USC will be coming from this year's version of the "Game of the Century" against Ohio State when it comes rolling into Corvallis - with nearly two weeks off. USC will be reminded for 11 days of what happened last time OSU hosted: the 33-31 thriller that nearly ruined USC's 2006 campaign. The time before that, in 2004, was the "Fog Bowl," a narrow 28-20 USC win (thanks to Reggie Bush). All indications point to the Beavers keeping this one close, but I think USC comes too early this season for the Beavers to upset. Loss.

Record: 2-2 (1-1 in the Pac-10).

Then the Beavers travel to Utah for another Thursday night game, this time taking on the Utes. A lot of Utah's success, coming off a 9-4 season, will hinge on the health of its returning quarterback, Brian Johnson. Aside from that, the Utes are led by talented running back Darrell Mack, who was third in the WAC last season with over 1,200 yards. Let's face the facts: The Beavers have yet to show up for early season road trips to WAC schools on Thursday nights. Although this one isn't as early as some of the Boise State debacles of the past - it actually takes place in October - it doesn't look good for the Beavs here. Loss.

Record: 2-3 (1-1 in the Pac-10 and 1-2 on Thursdays)

During week seven, the Beavers return to Saturdays and play Washington State. And nobody looks like a better opponent than the Cougars in 2008. New head coach Paul Wulff has already stated that his team's success this season will not be measured in wins and losses but by "team cohesion and discipline." In other words, the Cougars are going to stink. Win.

Record: 3-3 (2-1 in the Pac-10)

With a .500 record, the Beavers travel to Washington. It could be another very long year in Seattle for Husky fans. Washington starts loads of freshmen on defense, which might not be a bad thing for the Beavers - Washington defense gave up nearly 32 points per game last year. The best thing it has going is the play of sophomore quarterback Jake Locker. The problem for Locker lies in who he is going to throw the ball to. By the time this game is played, Ty Willingham will be permanently in the Dawg House, fans will be more interested in the Seahawks than the Huskies and OSU will get its second road success of the year. Win.

Record: 4-3 (3-1 in the Pac-10)

After another bye week, Arizona State comes calling at Reser. The last time the Sun Devils were here, they got washed away in a torrential downpour and dominated by the Beaver defense, losing 45-17. However, this year's ASU team is widely being considered the team to challenge USC and is coming off a 10-win season in 2007. ASU has a veteran quarterback in Rudy Carpenter and a four or five-wide receiver attack that will see the Sun Devils throw the ball 40-50 times a game. Ex-Beaver head coach Dennis Erickson may have the Sun Devils in prime position this year, but they will come to Corvallis in the midst of a stretch that will see them play four out of five games on the road, on the heels of taking on Georgia in the Tempe heat. Win.

Record: 5-3 (4-1 in the Pac-10).

Week eleven has OSU traveling down south to L.A. where it hasn't boasted the best results. The Beavers tripped over themselves in Westwood last time. By the time this game takes place, the Bruins should have quarterback Ben Olson back and healthy, not to mention that the Bruins have traditionally been a tough team to play in the Rose Bowl. Add in new head coach and former player Rick Neuheisel and the fact that the Beavers will be coming off a tough home game against ASU while the Bruins will be coming off a bye week and you get a Beaver downer. Loss.

Record: 5-4 (4-2 in the Pac-10).

Then California comes to town, and "R-E-V-E-N-G-E" will be the battle cry for the Bears at Reser in mid-November. Last year, it was the Beavs who went into Berkeley and upset the then second-ranked team in the nation. The Bears went on to lose five more games and then to unravel in front of the entire nation. It's hard to see them fully recovering from that spiral this year, this year being in Jeff Tedford's last chance to get things going. This is a no-name team aside from its quarterback, Nate Longshore, who has 26 career starts to his credit. The last time he played at Reser he burned the Beavers in a blowout Cal win. Well, the second verse will not be same as the first. Win.

Record: 6-4 (5-2 in the Pac-10).

Week thirteen and it's back to the desert for the Beavers as they take on Arizona. Another embattled head coach, Mike Stoops, has turned Arizona into somewhat of an enigma in the last few years. This may be Stoops' last chance in Tucson. He has a talented quarterback in Willie Tuitama and a solid running game. Arizona is 6-12 over the last few years in games decided by less than a touchdown, but may be ready to get over that hump in 2008. Home field advantage goes to the Wildcats. Loss.

Record: 6-5 (5-3 in the Pac-10)

The final game of the season, the Civil War, is in Corvallis. Is there a tougher team in the Pac-10 to figure out than Oregon? The Ducks don't have a clear-cut starter at quarterback. Will it be Nate Costa or Justin Roper? The one thing the Ducks did find was a replacement for Jonathan Stewart: His name is LaGarrette Blount, and teamed with Jeremiah Johnson, the Ducks have a two-handed punch to deliver to opponents with the running game. But how much does Mike Bellotti really like to run the ball anyway? And if Oregon is behind, it will be forced to throw the ball, which will be difficult. Playing from behind will lead to blowout losses. There will be no signature win, a la at Michigan last year. Beavers win.

Regular season record: 7-5 with 6-3 in the Pac-10.

Game over. It seems those prognosticators who had the Beavers going to the Sun Bowl may be right on. In the end, this season will most likely fade and mesh right in with the others in recent memory. It might be another year without a Rose Bowl or major bowl, but a nice, successful season just the same.

Road Trip to El Paso for New Year's anyone?